Commercial banks are experiencing low revenues due to historically low interest rates. Furthermore, non-interest income remains volatile due to weakness in private business start-ups and expansions, as well as a sluggish residential real estate economy. One bright aspect has been mortgage refinancing, which has seen robust activity as people move out of higher interest mortgages. The industry is experiencing significant consolidation recently, and the robust performance of capital markets over the past several years has also boosted profit margins. In addition, the number of credit-worthy borrows has increased.
Looking to the future, government regulation and technology-driven competition are expected to dramatically change the business model that commercial banks use. Revenue will become less volatile, and big banks will grow deposits at a faster rate than smaller savings institutions since their reputations were damaged due to the significant number of bank failures that occurred during the economic downturn.